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Theo
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« Reply #840 on: April 02, 2020, 03:28:05 PM »

omg live discussion between a brick wall and a stone wall
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« Reply #841 on: April 02, 2020, 03:37:10 PM »

omg live discussion between a brick wall and a stone wall

At least AskJoe has actual scientific evidence and is more credible.
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« Reply #842 on: April 02, 2020, 03:37:45 PM »

As someone who has a math degree, I beg to differ. Here is an article which explains the math used to model epidemics which includes differential equations, graph theory, and probability.
https://towardsdatascience.com/the-mathematics-of-epidemiology-fa0ba15e44a2

Compared to these areas of math percentages are very boring. For further reading, here is an article which shows how to use differential equations to model the spread of diseases.
https://www.public.asu.edu/~hnesse/classes/sir.html

This next article discusses how graph theory is used to model epidemics. Note: the article uses the word network rather than graph, but it's the same thing.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1578276/

Probability theory can also be used in the modeling of pandemics as discussed in this article.
http://ww3.haverford.edu/mathematics/lbutler/glossary/bayes.html

These last two articles use these areas of mathematics to create some interesting simulations which model the spread of viruses, in a way that even a high school student, or in your case a high school dropout, can understand, even without a solid understanding of the areas of math just mentioned. The first article is fairly basic, but the second article has more interesting simulations that are interactive. Both are worth reading, but if you can only read one, read the second.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Here is a Youtube video with further simulations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Lastly, here is a video which shows how viruses spread, at a lower level than the first 4 articles I linked. After watching the video you should have a basic understanding of how pandemics grow, and what phrases like "flatten the curve" mean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

That's just a bunch of nonsense by people.
They're doing this nonsense just to make themselves look smarter. It means nothing.
All of this will be gone in a week or two anyways.
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« Reply #843 on: April 02, 2020, 03:48:58 PM »

It's a 50/50 chance.
You get it or you don't.

Then, another 50/50
You die from it or you don't.

In the UK, an old man with pre existing conditions BEAT it. Elsewhere, a healthy 18 year old died from it. Even a 13 year old died.
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« Reply #844 on: April 02, 2020, 04:27:25 PM »

That's just a bunch of nonsense by people.
They're doing this nonsense just to make themselves look smarter. It means nothing.
All of this will be gone in a week or two anyways.
The good thing about mathematics is that everything has an objectively correct answer, though there are many correct ways to get that answer.
All of the articles I linked in my post are backed up by scientific evidence. If the models disagreed with the data than the mathematical model would be invalid and would have to be reworked if not discarded.
I will refute your last point in two weeks from now.
It's a 50/50 chance.
You get it or you don't.

Then, another 50/50
You die from it or you don't.

In the UK, an old man with pre existing conditions BEAT it. Elsewhere, a healthy 18 year old died from it. Even a 13 year old died.
Not necessarily. When someone come if contact with someone who has the virus their isn't necessarily.a 50/50 chance that the infected person will pass along the virus. The probability that an infected person passes the virus along to any one healthy person is called the transmission rate. Based on data a good approximation for the transmission rate for this virus is 20% -30%, far less than 50/50. The fatality rate for this virus is also less than 50/50. Data shows that the fatality rate for this virus increases with age. Based on your numbers, we can conclude that 50% * 50% = 25% of the population will die of the coronavirus, which we can conclude isn't reasonable.
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« Reply #845 on: April 02, 2020, 04:30:20 PM »

I'm not on about statistics and death rates. Just because a handful of people in a large group of people died from it doesn't mean that someone who gets isn't likely to die. They either do or don't. It's the same with anything. I might not wake up tomorrow morning. I might. Who knows? I don't!
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« Reply #846 on: April 02, 2020, 04:38:43 PM »

But it isn't a 50/50 chance
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« Reply #847 on: April 02, 2020, 04:40:28 PM »

But it is really. You get it or you don't
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Phil
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« Reply #848 on: April 02, 2020, 04:41:08 PM »

It's not a 50/50 chance but that's not his point, his point is that anyone can get it, and anyone healthy or not can die from it.
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« Reply #849 on: April 02, 2020, 04:41:45 PM »

It's not a 50/50 chance but that's not his point, his point is that anyone can get it, and anyone healthy or not can die from it.
yeah.

Like, it doesn't discriminate.
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« Reply #850 on: April 02, 2020, 05:39:50 PM »

Exactly
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« Reply #851 on: April 02, 2020, 05:47:46 PM »

Brother E: Me trying to comprehend all the math talk.

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« Reply #852 on: April 02, 2020, 05:51:25 PM »

Brother E: Me trying to comprehend all the math talk.



Do you know how rates and functions work?
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« Reply #853 on: April 02, 2020, 05:52:06 PM »

Do you know how rates and functions work?
Brother E: Yeah, but not into calculus extremes.  Nervous
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« Reply #854 on: April 02, 2020, 06:08:00 PM »

I generally don't understand more complex math well but since I like statistics I understand this discussion and I like it Wink
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